The time has come for me to make the last post on this blog. When I started this a couple of months ago I was extremely apprehensive about it - in simple terms, blogging was not my thing. I did not think that I would enjoy it this much, and I am sad that it is coming to an end. Nonetheless, this has been a very exciting journey for both me and you, and all I want to say is that I hope you have enjoyed it as much as I have. I have definitely learnt things along the way, and I hope you have too. Hopefully I have put the scientific facts to you as correctly as possible - if i have not, I apologise. Maybe one day in the future we will stumble across this blog and see that a change has been made, and the impacts covered in this post have been reduced or stopped all together.
I would like to take this opportunity to summarise some of the key things that we have been through over the last couple of weeks. I am aware that I have thrown a vast majority of things at you throughout this blog, but that just goes to show how much debate there is within the climate science field, and in particular the impacts it has on humans, which this blog has been focusing on. Although the posts I have made have varied in location and impact, what they did have in common was that all where focused on developing nations and the unfair distribution of climate change impacts.
1) Environmental impacts: It is clear that global environmental change caused by humans is having a massive environmental impact on those living in developing countries. Lets take the drought in Somaliland for example, or the floods in developing Asian countries such as Bangladesh. The reason why this is so important is because although farmland may not be as important to those living in developed countries - those in poor parts of the world rely on agriculture to make a living. If land used for cultivation is destroyed, then those living in developing nations are unlikely to be able to earn a living through another industry as many of them are uneducated. Thus the impacts are huge.
2) Social impacts: Today is New Years Day. Imagine you had to spend it at a refugee camp because your home was destroyed by a flood. Well that is the case for many people from developing countries. Somebody in the world right now is separated from their community, alone, because climate change has taken their livelihood away from them. Many climate migrants from developing nations are forced to flee each day due to difficulties caused by climate change. The vast majority of the time, they are bearing the brunt of the more developed world, but impacts are unfairly distributed.
3) Economic impacts: Once houses, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure is destroyed, governments of developing nations have to spend money to rebuild and recover. This money could be spent on development but instead its being spent on damages caused by avoidable circumstances. This then means the development of certain countries is halted, leaving them further behind and forgotten about.
The impacts of climate change is unfairly distributed, felt most by those who live in developing countries, and by those who do not contribute as much as we do.
The impacts of Climate change on developing nations
Sunday 1 January 2017
Sunday 25 December 2016
Economic loser's
It is clear
that with climate change there are ‘winners’ (believe it or not) and losers’. Throughout
this blog it has become evident who falls into which ‘category’. In previous
weeks we have touched on the environmental impacts faced by developing nations
in the form of droughts and floods, and the social impacts faced in the form of
involuntary migration. In this penultimate post, the focus will be on the
economic impacts that arise for developing nations and emerging economies as a
result of climate change. The economic impacts of climate change are
interesting, which is why I have kept it until the end. The thing is, economic
impacts can occur as a result of social and environmental impacts – they are
interlinked. Let’s take a drought for example. This is an environmental impact
resultant of climate change. A drought means the land used for cultivation will
dry out, which in turn means crops will not grow. Many people in developing
nations rely on crops as a form of income. The cycle then continues.
Deschenes (2006) has argued that as temperature plus rainfall partake in direct involvement in farming, it
remains common certainty that the main financial upsets should be undergone within
this industry. The reason why Climate change is anticipated to have additional hostile
monetary influences in developing nations than in developed countries is due to
the fact that individuals in underprivileged nations have fewer prospects to acclimate
to deviations in their inhabiting circumstances. A key source for this is that a
lot of industries are superficial or absent, consequently deserting families
and businesses diminutive area for change (Chambwera et al 2010). What this
means is that when drought or floods occur and crop land becomes damaged, those
living in developing countries are less able to earn their living through
another source, whereas those living in developed nations are more likely to do
so – emphasisng how economic impacts are harder felt in poor nations. Economic impacts can also occur on a much
larger scale, where a whole country’s economy is severely disrupted. Let’s take Namibia for example. Studies in Namibia
have advocated that over 20 years, yearly deficits to the Namibian economy will
possibly reach 6 per cent of the GDP as a result of the influence climate
change will exert on its unprocessed possessions only (Reid 2007). Within a poor
country, there are also people who are better off than others. Thus this bearing
on the Namibian economy will strike the lowliest of the residents toughest,
with subsequent constrictions on work openings and deteriorating incomes (Reid 2007).
Due to a
lack of adaptation strategies, any change in climate will have devastating
monetary burdens on emerging economies, highly constraining their growth and
contributing to already high poverty levels. Many studies within the climate
change sector have indicated that there is a connection amongst diminutions in development
and prosperity and climate change effects (OECD 2013). These studies have found
that any increase in temperature will result in a decrease in the farming
industry, and other natural resources thus indicating the significant economic damage that will be
felt by developing nations. While the overall financial costs of climate change
may be higher in developed nations due to expensive infrastructure and so
forth, financial deductions as a percentage of GDP are tremendously higher in
developing nations (OECD 2013). It should be remembered that although one off economic
impacts can occur, catastrophes correspondingly diminish continuing economic progress
as many developing nations tend to spend money on emergency respite and recuperating
from disasters such as flood, instead of investing that money into progression
and poverty alleviation (OECD 2013). Let’s take Honduras for example. The
hurricane that hit that nation in 1992 had such severe economic impacts, that
six years after the disaster struck, GDP was projected to be 6 percent to 9
percent below what it could have been, and should have been if the tragedy did
not take place (OECD 2013). It is highly unlikely that a developed nation would
take this long to recover from such impacts.
As this post
draws to a close, I think that it has become clear to both me and you, that
economic impacts are expected to be vastly adverse for the majority of emerging
economies and poor nations, with even the slimmest global mean temperature rise.
What has also become clear is that just as economic impacts can be instigated
by environmental impacts – they can similarly have knock on effects. As economic
impacts will be unevenly distributed, being felt by developing nations and the
poorest inhabitants of developing countries, it is likely that there will be
huge increases in disparity of health, access to satisfactory nutrition and hygienic
water (Ravindranath et al 2006).
Sunday 18 December 2016
Why Climate Change Is a Threat to Human Rights - Mary Robinson
This TED talk features Mary Robinson, who served as the first
female President of Ireland between 1990-1997 and as the United Nations
High Commissioner for Human Rights between 1997-2002. Her main message is that it is clear that climate change is unfair - the impacts are felt most by those who contribute the least, developing nations and emerging economies. Robinson tackles the Human Rights issued faced as a result of climate change.
In the video she mentions that while she was President of Ireland, she didn't have to think about purchasing land for her people, because as a developed nation the people of Ireland were not likely to be forced to migrate as a result of climate change. She contrasts this with the President of Kiribati - who has had to buy land in Peru as security for his people due to the impacts climate change will have on the island nation, once again emphasising how unfair climate change is. She touches on how over 300 people were killed in Malawi, with hundreds of thousands more displaced due to a flood that took place in January 2015. The fact of the matter is that the average person in Malawi emits 80kg of CO2 a year, whereas the average US citizen emits about 17.5 metric tonnes, showing how developing countries are increasingly bearing the brunt, with minimal contributions to the problem. She mentions how she spoke to a lady from Uganda, who said that as the years went by long periods of droughts and flash floods have become more common, destroying livelihoods.
One major point that she argues is that developing countries and emerging economies have to develop without fossil fuels/emissions as targets are set to reduce emissons (due to large amounts already released by developed nations), which means they will not be able to grow to full potential and will therefore be left behind.
Have a watch to see all the other interesting points she makes.
In the video she mentions that while she was President of Ireland, she didn't have to think about purchasing land for her people, because as a developed nation the people of Ireland were not likely to be forced to migrate as a result of climate change. She contrasts this with the President of Kiribati - who has had to buy land in Peru as security for his people due to the impacts climate change will have on the island nation, once again emphasising how unfair climate change is. She touches on how over 300 people were killed in Malawi, with hundreds of thousands more displaced due to a flood that took place in January 2015. The fact of the matter is that the average person in Malawi emits 80kg of CO2 a year, whereas the average US citizen emits about 17.5 metric tonnes, showing how developing countries are increasingly bearing the brunt, with minimal contributions to the problem. She mentions how she spoke to a lady from Uganda, who said that as the years went by long periods of droughts and flash floods have become more common, destroying livelihoods.
One major point that she argues is that developing countries and emerging economies have to develop without fossil fuels/emissions as targets are set to reduce emissons (due to large amounts already released by developed nations), which means they will not be able to grow to full potential and will therefore be left behind.
Have a watch to see all the other interesting points she makes.
Sunday 11 December 2016
Why are developing nations more vulnerable to impacts?
Over the
past couple of weeks this blog has focused on the social, economic and
environmental impacts faced by developing countries as a result of climate
change. The notion that developing countries endure the burden of the impacts
instigated by climate change, even though they have not contributed as much to
the change, was initially presented through Schelling (1992). Keeping that
perception in mind, this week the aim of this post is to look at the regional dissimilarities
of climate change impacts, and trying to understand why this is the case. It
should be taken into deliberation that the aim of this post is to not debate
what makes a developing country and what makes a developed one, but instead the
aim is to try understand the variation of impact distribution.
It has been
argued that as the years have gone by not much thought has gone into the
regional variation of climate change impacts, with existing literature failing
to acknowledge that some locations are likely to experience greater
consequences (Nordhaus, 1991; Tol, 1995; Fankhauser, 1995; Pearce et al.,
1996). Although models have been developed in the past attempting to forecast future
changes, these models tend to presuppose that all parts of the world will
experience the same climate change impacts due to the belief that temperature
is on the rise globally. However, as we can see before our very own eyes, this
has not been the case. Climate change is rapidly destroying agriculture and
land used for cultivation – and it’s the developing countries that rely on this
as a form of income, as previously mentioned. Recently, new research that has
been undertaken has found fresh understandings as to how impacts vary
(Mendelsohn and Neumann, 1999; McCarthy et al., 2001; Mendelsohn, 2001; Tol,2002). It is evident that many developed and rich countries are located in
cooler parts of the globe, while the majority of developing nations are located
in warmer regions, hence why they face greater climate change impacts. Thus the
studies carried out found that for farmers in developed countries their
agricultural business could grow as their location is cooler than optimum
temperature meaning that a rise in temperature would actually be beneficial,
whereas farmers in developing countries would face a decline in business as an
already warm climate becomes even warmer (Mendelsohn et al 2006).
Mendelsohn et al indicated that if all nations had parallel climatic conditions primarily,
then the impacts faced after would be shared out equally. However, all
countries do not have the same initial climate – as we have established,
developing nations are more likely to have a warmer climate to begin with due
to their locations. The report has concluded that the main reason as to why
developing nations face greater impacts is because they are situated in warm,
low latitudinal regions. Developed countries on the other hand will most likely
profit from climate change as they are typically situated in mid/high
latitudinal areas therefore experiencing chilled temperatures (Mendelsohn et al 2006).
So what does
this mean for the future? Each country has many factors that could determine
how they will be impacted by climate change. These factors range from
population to GDP. The problem is that these characteristics are constantly
changing and these changes mean that severity of impacts could increase. Nonetheless,
ultimately the developing countries will endure the majority of the impacts
from climate change. Although some developed countries will also experience
some impacts, the damages will be incomparable to those faced in the poor
regions. Mendelsohn et al even goes as far as concluding that the most affluent
nations will in fact benefit.
Sunday 4 December 2016
Asia - A flood magnet 2
Just stopping by to share two videos with you that are closely related to my last post. The first video features meteorologist Derek Van Dam who explains the reason why parts of Asia are prone to flooding is because of a phenomenon known as the North East monsoon. This is when high pressure builds across China, thus producing a north easterly wind which carries moisture from the South China Sea towards the mountainous regions of Indonesia and Malaysia, leading to heavier rainfall. He explains that flooding can lead to increased landslides and mudslides, thus causing catastrophic impacts. It is a hugely educating video so have a watch.
The second video speaks less of the science behind flooding, and more of the impacts that arise as a result, highlighting that life is a struggle for people who call the region home. It goes on to indicate that the residents are facing the worst floods in 200 years (2015). Have a watch to find out what social, environmental and economic impacts arise in the region as a result of the flooding.
The second video speaks less of the science behind flooding, and more of the impacts that arise as a result, highlighting that life is a struggle for people who call the region home. It goes on to indicate that the residents are facing the worst floods in 200 years (2015). Have a watch to find out what social, environmental and economic impacts arise in the region as a result of the flooding.
Sunday 27 November 2016
Asia - A flood magnet
The remains of a community in India after it had been hit by a massive flood. Photo: Floodlist |
A few weeks ago I looked at how climate related weather
events in regions such as Dhaka and Bhola Island had forced families to flee
their homes with little or no warning and take refuge in slums. In this week’s
post I hope to indulge further into one of those extreme events – floods, and
the impacts it has on the continent of Asia.
In terms of area, Asia is the largest continent in the
world, making up 17.4 million square miles and it is argued that out of the
seven continents, it makes up one third of all the areas on the globe (Mattem 2002). Not only is Asia the largest land based continent in the world, but it
is also the largest populated continent with around 4.6 billion people living
in the region (almost 60% of the world’s population), according to the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Asia is home to many developing countries,
ranging from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, to the Philippines and Nepal. Thus the
huge population of the region along with the high number of developing nations
means that climate change could have a huge impact.
A study carried out by Manton et al 2013 (where all the following sources were cited) argued that floods are the most treacherous and exorbitant
of all natural catastrophes and it is well known that Asian countries regularly
suffer from flooding (McCarthy et al 2001). Flooding occurs as a result of many
different factors, yet these factors are all associated with climate change.
For example, flooding can be a result of increased levels of rainfall which can
be caused by climate variability (e.g. El Nino), while rising temperatures lead
to thermal expansion thus leading to sea level rise (World Bank 2010). The Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have indicated that between 2000 and 2009
nearly half (38%) of the flood incidents that were recorded took place in Asia,
killing up to 37 million people and causing economics damages in excess of $85
billion, badly affecting developing nations.
Past:
One developing country that is particularly prone to
flooding is Bangladesh due to its low lying land. In 1988, floods hit 52% of
the country, with 85 % of the capital Dhaka being covered by water. Reports
suggest that out of the 6 million residents who were living in Dhaka at the
time, up to 4 million of them were sternly impacted as the floods cleared away
their homes and livelihoods, with 150 people being killed immediately as a result
of the floods, and through secondary impacts such as starvation as a result of
crops and livestock being submerged (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 2010). Similarly, the floods that hit Mumbai in 2005
were just as devastating. As a result of the heavy rain that took place (Bhagatet al 2006), up to 500 people were either seriously hurt or killed, while
economic losses reached $2 billion, forcing many people to become climate
migrants as they had to leave their homes (Hallegatte et al 2010). The table
below shows the number of floods that have occurred in Asia between 2006/2016
and the scale of impacts that it has caused. Out of all the climate related
disasters that occurred during this period, floods led to the most deaths,
injuries, homelessness and economic damage, as seen below.
Disaster type
|
Occurrence
|
Total Deaths
|
Injured
|
Affected
|
Homeless
|
Total affected
|
Total damage ($)
|
Flood
|
737
|
44,284
|
49,283
|
732,201,514
|
12,352,736
|
744,604,073
|
217,829,977
|
Present:
In June 2016, 100 people died in a monsoon flooding that
took place in South Asia as a result of torrential rain. In addition to these
deaths, hundreds of thousands of people had been displaced according to a BBC article. The article continued to say that out of all the countries that got
hit, Nepal was the most impacted with over 75 deaths recorded. India recorded
22 deaths as a result of the flooding, with a further 1.5 million people
directly affected, with many losing their homes and having to be moved to
shelter. Huge regions of farmland and roads had been swamped, thus impacting
food security as crops and livestock are essential to developing nations, while
blocked roads mean that it will take longer to get emergency aid to those who
need it the most, increasing the possibility of secondary impacts arising, such
as illness as a result of contaminated water. The data below indicates the
impact of flooding in Asia for the year 2016. As previous years, it was once
again the highest occurring extreme climate event in the region. It should be remembered
that the year is not over and already these large figures seen below have been
reached.
Disaster type
|
Occurrence
|
Total deaths
|
Injured
|
Affected
|
Homeless
|
Total affected
|
Total damage ($)
|
Flood
|
53
|
2,502
|
136
|
7,841,612
|
2,078,870
|
9,920,618
|
18,589,590
|
Future:
Unfortunately, the situation does not seem to be improving.
Scientists have used models to predict that if climate change continues at the
rate it is currently moving, impacts of flooding may be more significant. They
have indicated that by 2050 there will be augmented flooding impacting cities
such as Bangkok, Manila and Ho Chi Minh. Thus the cost of damage from flooding
as a result of climate change are estimated to range from 2%-6%, meaning that
if a flood were to occur in Manila for example, it would cost up to $1.5 billion, impacting
the livelihood of thousands of people (World Bank 2010). Similarly, if the
flood that took place in Mumbai in 2005 was to transpire once more in 2080, the
significances will be far superior. The costs would be twofold and total losses
both openly as a result of the flood and also as a result of secondary impacts
such as death from diseases could triple (Hallgatte et al 2010).
Although Asia suffers from a vast majority of climate
related weather events, it is clear that the most common is flood. The impact
flooding has on developing countries in Asia such as Bangladesh and Nepal is
huge, with many deaths and injuries occurring as a result. Not only are fatalities
common, but the economic losses are also catastrophic, for the country as a
whole, but also per person, as many people lose everything that they own, from
homes to livestock thus reducing the quality of life for regions that already
have a fragile economy.
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